We may be way past “Dry January” at this point, but moderate drinking has become an all-year activity for many Americans. 22% of drinkers said they plan to take a month-long break from drinking alcohol at some point in the year, and almost 30% said they expect to drink less this year. (Morning Consult, Jan. 2023) No- and low-alcohol products (NOLO) are an important opportunity for the beverage alcohol industry… an opportunity over $400M.
$413 MILLION OPPORTUNITY
More drinkers in the segment = $114,377,858
Those that already buy, buy one more unit = $267,645,507
Those that already buy, take one more trip = $145,563,722
Note: This is not a forecast model. Nielsen 2022 cross purchase indicates that 82% of non-alc buyers are also purchasing regular alcohol in BWS, up 5 PP from 2020's 77% cross purchase. This trend acceptance is not factored into the opportunity as wellbeing continues as a mainstream trend and penetration rates may grow faster than predicated.
Low-alc is a much greater share of the pie than non-alc. The majority share (67%) of the NOLO segment is low-alc (<60 Proof) Spirits—half of that is rum, being a generally lower-proof spirit, but whiskey and vodka make up most of the other half. Low-alc Table Wine is 24% of the NOLO segment with a 29% YOY growth trend. (IRI MULO+C, 52wks ending 2.26.23)
Brands need to keep in mind that moderation is not a consumer—it’s about occasions and experiences. The majority of consumers purchasing NOLO also purchase full-strength drinks. Over the next few years, NOLO will gain distribution and channels, including eCommerce, increasing the choices for consumers. Brands who want to grow or maintain share will find that innovation is key, but they also need best-in-class execution of sales and distribution.